About Those Global Recession Rumors

Posted on Aug 30, 2019

There’s a rumor going around— quiet (and loud) murmurs and rumblings of a global recession. Some economists around the world are bringing to light the unsettling signs of a slowdown as early as the beginning of 2020.

Others believe we can dodge a global recession, arguing that some economies continue to grow, while the US and Europe maintain record-high employment rates. After a long standstill, wages in the US have also started to finally rise, and many companies are well equipped with cash at the moment, which should help them navigate any immediate economic distress.

On the other hand, bond market investors who lend money to the US government have sold their short-term loans in expectation of a major recession, exactly as they did before the 2008 financial crash. The jittery bond market is almost always a direct indication of where the US economy is headed, causing even more speculation that the US economy could be in trouble—and soon.

Two major global issues are also affecting the global economic forecast: Brexit and the U.S. vs China trade war.  

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding Britain’s future has already damaged investment and GDP growth. If new Prime Minister Boris Johnson leads the UK into leaving the EU without a deal, most everyone agrees the damage will be severe, even catastrophic. The UK is one of the world’s largest economies after the US, China, Japan, and Germany.

As predicted, the trade war with China continues to impact consumers, the companies in these countries doing business, and supply chains everywhere. During trade wars, even the most mature global supply chains are at risk with new liabilities presented at every turn, over and above the existing supply chain management challenges such as language differences, terrorism, time zones, natural disasters, and cultural barriers. 

Many individuals and organizations remember— and some certainly still feel the effects— of the great recession of 2008, when the housing market crashed and we entered into a period of financial collapse, and are naturally fearful of a repeat economic meltdown.

Nobody—not even the greatest economists in the world or, hey, even us!—can predict the future with 100% certainty, but we can prepare for it. With the right technology, we can study every warning sign, weigh every opposing side and varying forecast, and prepare for the future no matter what it brings.

NC4 Risk Center can provide actionable intelligence and assessments on the likely impact of a global recession on your organization. Real-time tracking of events gives a more complete picture of where risks are occurring, shows a history of where risks are more prevalent for your particular industry, and houses a directory of suppliers' contact information so you can quickly contact these key representatives for a complete picture of how the global economy is affecting your supply chain and travel risk exposure.

So, what would a global economic slowdown and declining economic output mean for your organization? Email us at info@NC4.com or call 877-624-4999 to find out. Speak with an NC4 risk management specialist and dramatically increase your ability to prepare and respond to risks that may threaten your business during a global recession. 

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